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Although there are four hidden concerns in the development of the industry, they still have an optimistic attitude towards the long-term development prospects of the machinery industry. It is believed that the current party and country attach great importance to the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and the development of the industry is experiencing an unprecedented period of rapid growth. It faces the following five major development opportunities:
First, the country has accelerated the process of industrialization. As a large developing country, the total amount and level of equipment demand will maintain a long period of prosperity, which will inevitably lead to a "mass increase in quality" of the machinery industry.
The second is the process of new countryside construction and urbanization that China is currently accelerating. It has opened up new areas of work and service space for the development of China's machinery industry.
Third, China's machinery industry has a clear international comparative advantage. Economic globalization and international industrial transfer will further stimulate the export of China's mechanical and electrical products and provide tremendous impetus for the development of the industry.
Fourth, the policy effect of the Party and the country in revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry has become increasingly apparent. It will surely continue to guide and drive the rapid development of China's machinery industry.
Fifth, the continuous deepening of reform and opening up, the promotion of state-owned enterprises to speed up the transformation of operating mechanisms, the rapid development of private enterprises, making the industry's vitality continues to increase.
In 2007, there will be no sudden reversal of the operation of the machinery industry. From the perspective of demand and supply, it is estimated that the demand for the next year will cool down, but the overall environment for the operation of the machinery industry is relatively good. Although there are sharp contradictions among some upstream industries, There will be no turning point in the overall development trend of the machinery industry.
For the prediction of the trend of the machinery industry in 2007, the China Machinery Industry Federation has an objective and cautious attitude. From the demand side, the current domestic macroeconomic trend is high and low, and it is estimated that next year will continue to cool down, but the overall environment is still operating better for the machinery industry, and the economic situation of several major foreign economies is also relatively stable. According to relevant agencies' forecasts, the world economic growth rate will be between 3.9% and 4.9% next year, and it will still be the most robust growth period in the past 30 years. Therefore, the growth in the demand for mechanical products in both domestic and foreign markets may slow down, and it is difficult to reach the high level this year, but it is not expected that sudden reversal will occur. From the supply side, the supply of major raw materials, energy, and transportation capacity required by China's machinery industry, although there are some sharp contradictions in local areas, generally speaking, it can basically meet the needs of the recent development. The above-mentioned supply of elements has shown signs of turning changes.
Based on the analysis of demand and supply, the China Machinery Industry Federation’s forecast for the major economic indicators of the machinery industry in 2007 is that the machinery industry is expected to continue to maintain steady and rapid development, but the growth rate will be significantly slowed down; industrial output value, The industrial added value and main business income will increase by about 20% from the previous year; the total profit will increase by about 20% from the previous year; the total import and export volume will increase by about 20% from the previous year, and the import and export industry is expected to achieve a basic balance for the first time.
For the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2007 and beyond, Zhu Sen made a special reminder that the following four situations need attention.
First, after 2007, it is estimated that many industry orders will be reduced and it is necessary to take precautions. In some industries, when capacity grows at a high rate of rapid growth, when demand changes, orders may be reduced and some capacity may be shorted. At this time, it is necessary to consider the adjustment of the internal product structure of the company, the adjustment of the industrial structure of the entire machinery industry, and the adjustment of the user's object to cope with the problems that may be encountered in the future.
Second, the rise in resource prices is a trend. Despite the ups and downs in the middle, the overall trend is rising. Therefore, this factor should be taken into consideration throughout the year and it should be eliminated. The solution is to strengthen technological innovation.
Third, during the operation of the machinery industry from 2007 to 2008, efforts should be made to improve innovation. From the current development of some industries in the machinery industry, the institutional and institutional factors that affect the development of state-owned enterprises are decreasing, while the technological advantages and innovation capabilities begin to show.
Fourth, taking into account changes in the domestic market, companies are paying attention to expanding exports, but at the same time as expanding exports, it is necessary to increase the technological added value of exported products as much as possible, and change the status of most products as low value-added and labor-intensive. At the same time, in the process of exporting, enterprises should not create a situation of playing civil war and competing for price reduction.
Five Opportunities Outline the Bright Future of Mechanical Industry
Although there are still some prominent contradictions in China's machinery industry, and the ability of the industry to resist risks is still very fragile, the party and the country currently attach great importance to the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and the industry development is facing many opportunities. The general trend of the machinery industry is upward. .