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In the first five months of 2006, the commercial vehicle industry continued to grow steadily. A total of 860,300 commercial vehicles were sold in the country, an increase of 6.64% year-on-year, of which passenger cars sold a total of 113,000 vehicles, an increase of 12.49% year-on-year, and trucks sold a total of 747,300 vehicles, a year-on-year increase. Increased by 5.81%.
Due to the increase in speed of trains squeezing the long-distance passenger transportation market, the sales structure of the passenger car industry has undergone slight changes. The sales volume of the traditional passenger cars in the 11-12 meter segment has dropped. The growth of medium-sized passenger vehicles has grown substantially under the influence of rural passenger transport and short-to-medium-distance passenger transportation, and has become a healthy bus industry. An important cornerstone of development. However, we believe that due to fierce competition and lower gross profit margins, the increase in sales of medium-sized passenger vehicles will have limited impact on the performance of listed companies.
As the road passenger transport market is about to usher in the third peak of transfer, coupled with the needs of the bus, export and rural markets, we believe that the continuous growth of the bus industry in the next three years can be expected, and the growth of the bus industry in 2006 will be even greater. Optimism will increase sales growth forecast from 8-12% to 10-14%.
The heavy-duty truck market is still recovering. The sales structure has two characteristics. First, the demand of users has been upgraded to the heavy-duty direction. Second, the demand for chassis of the refitted car companies has increased significantly, and the development trend of the heavy-duty truck industry towards specialization is obvious. However, we are In the second half of the year, the state’s macro-controls expressed concern about the possibility of indirectly affecting demand for heavy trucks through the construction machinery market.
We believe that the heavy truck market will remain in the adjustment period in 2006, and the overall growth rate of the industry will remain at around 10-15%. The full implementation of toll-by-weight pricing is a key factor affecting sales volume. The major competition in the heavy truck market in 2006 will start between China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck. The strength of China National Heavy Duty Truck in terms of scale is expected to make it the leader in heavy truck industry. However, the industry competition pattern is not stable. With the advancement of technology upgrading, the competitiveness of Beiqi Foton, FAW, Dongfeng and North Benz will increase in the next two years, and competition in the heavy truck market will also become fiercer.
For the investment in the commercial vehicle industry, we are still holding the “property†proposal for maintaining the average allocation ratio of the industry. With the steady growth of the industry, a perfect after-sales service and brand image will highlight the competitive advantages of leading companies. Focus on the leading companies China National Heavy Duty Truck and Xiamen Golden Dragon.