The date of the disclosure of the interim report is getting closer, but for construction machinery companies, their "test" performance may not bring much surprise to the market.

Shantui shares (000680) - Bulldozer leading a few days ago to correct the first half of performance forecast, the company expects net profit in the first half of the same period last year basically the same. In the first quarter of this year, the company had expected the first-half net profit to increase by 50% to 100% year-on-year. The reason for the lower forecast is that due to the tightening monetary policy of the country, the market demand for the company's main products declined and the investment income represented by the equity company Komatsu Shantui Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. decreased.

Shantui’s shares have soared from the end of April to the current reduction in performance expectations, and have experienced a sharp decline in industry sales data in just two months. After the construction machinery began to fall in April this year, it continued to decline rapidly in May. According to industry association data, in May, the loader sales volume was 120,000 units, which was a year-on-year increase of 2% and a month-on-month decrease of 20.5%; Bulldozer sales were 7,796 units, a year-on-year decrease of 34.21%, a month-on-month decrease of 26.21%; excavator sales were 114,900 units. , a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, a decrease of 47.73% compared with the previous period; the number of truck cranes was 20,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.38%.

"From the trade association data, the sales status in the second quarter is different from the sales status in the first quarter. It may be that the demand for construction machinery is advanced in advance in the first quarter. At the same time, the conditions of excessively loose credit sales stimulate the market's excitement. This effect is expected. The digestion will still take some time, and the machinery market will remain weak in the short term, said Li Qin, a researcher at China Investment Securities.

For the May sales data released by the industry association, Donghai Securities researcher Zhou Fengwu analyzed that the continuation of the national macro tightening policy is the main reason for the weakening of the industry trend. In the first half of the year, the low operating rate of water conservancy investment and affordable housing has also continued to weaken the industry’s recent Trends.

Judging from Shantui’s judgment and researcher’s analysis, tightening monetary policy has become an important reason for the decline in sales volume of construction machinery. It is understood that the impact of the credit crunch on the industry is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, it affects the downstream demand of the industry. Some projects under construction have slowed down due to the credit crunch, construction of projects originally scheduled to start has been postponed; and second, it has affected the marketing efforts of enterprises. In order to seize market share, construction machinery companies intensified their promotion efforts and increased the proportion of financial leasing and installment payments in the first quarter. However, after entering April, some enterprises began to strengthen risk control and actively reduced the credit sales. Accounting.

In view of the fact that the credit policy has not yet materially loosened, Shantui’s demand for stock products is still falling, and the annual investment income is not optimistic. Therefore, after the Shantui Group released the above-mentioned performance changes, securities companies such as Guojin Securities and Essence Securities have initially lowered their earnings forecasts.

A number of brokerages' reports pointed out that the acceleration of the construction of affordable housing in the second half of the year is expected to reverse the continuous decline in construction machinery. However, researcher Li Qin believes that although the construction of affordable housing will support some of the demand, it is still not enough to make up for the vacancy caused by the real economy's fall. In addition, it still takes some time for the construction of social housing to promote the construction machinery. Before, mechanical market sales may still have a falling time period.