In the IT industry, there is a "five poor and six absolute", which means that the IT market will enter the off-season from May to May each year. In June, it was basically inaccessible. After that, it was also followed by a "seven hangs," which further explained the market's impermanence. At present, this scene of "five poor, six and seven, hanging" may be being staged in the Chinese auto industry.

After the Chinese auto market continued its unprecedented high sales in the first quarter, the Chinese auto market began to feel the cold winds of the market since April. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association in April, domestic auto production and sales were 1.5353 million and 1.5520 million, which was a decrease of 15.98% and 15.12% compared with the previous period and a decrease of 1.85% and 0.25% year-on-year.

After entering May, both the dealers and the car companies are experiencing tremendous market pressure. According to preliminary statistics from the CLUCC, sales growth at the start of May was low, and overall sales of some manufacturers in the first week (May 4 to May 9) were negatively up 8% year-on-year. This sales did not include Japanese holiday manufacturers. .

The negative growth of the overall market will become the norm. Rally Secretary General Rao Da analyzes: “At the end of April, the inventory of individual vehicle models of Japanese companies was exhausted and began to be sold according to orders. It is estimated that the impact of the earthquake in Japan on the Chinese auto market will fully return to normal, and 3-8 Months and May are the most influential months, and will inevitably reduce sales in May.” Actually, judging from the information received by reporters, Japanese car manufacturers’ production in China has significantly slowed down, and major Japanese cars, including Toyota and Honda, have been slowed down. The brand uses the “May 1st” holiday to advance the maintenance of the summer production line in advance, which will affect sales volume in the first half of May and continue to decline.

On the other hand, the micro-vehicle brands and commercial vehicle companies that once supported the auto market are more than just imaginative. According to data from the China Automobile Association, commercial vehicle sales were 409,700 units in April, down 14.81% from the previous month. Compared with the same period of last year, commercial vehicle sales fell 7.84%. This means that commercial vehicles have changed from previous leaders to dragging their legs, and this phenomenon continues.

However, what is most disturbing to the market is that, so far, no signs of recovery have been seen in the market. Rao Da pointed out that although inventories of Japanese companies declined in April, the total inventory of domestic cars still rose and exceeded the critical point of higher inventory, which means that the market will continue to decline. By the end of April, manufacturers will spit out most of the Tibetan sales, sales in May will be closer to the actual market, and sales will decrease.

Therefore, from now on, participants in the Chinese automobile market must begin to adjust their mentality to include negative growth in a normal state. This state is likely to last for a long time. It may not be until September or October that there will be a small rebound.

The reversal of the Chinese auto market in 2008 was due to the recent situation in the auto market. Many insiders compare this year with the 2004 winter market.

In fact, in 2003 China's auto sales were only 4.46 million, even though it increased by 34%, and it was only 5.09 million in 2004. The lack of a base figure is difficult to compare with the sharp drop this year. According to statistics from January to April of this year, during the period, domestic car sales reached 6.5 million, far exceeding the level of 2004. If you really want to come up with a year compared with the year-on-year decline, then the status of the domestic auto industry will be closer to that of the current economic crisis in 2008, and the problems and reasons you face will be very close.

In 2008, the Chinese auto market also quickly turned down after a high growth in the first quarter. In April 2008, the domestic car sales fell from the previous 25% to 14%, and then went all the way down. By November, it even fell by 14%, and in December it was also close to 12%. Even if we only looked at passenger vehicles, the rate of decline in the last two months of 2008 also reached 10% and 8%, which is a huge difference from the 17% and 12% growth in the same period in 2007.

Similarly, look at the domestic auto market trend in 2011: As of the end of April this year, domestic sales growth was only 5.95%, which is a sharp drop from the 32% increase in the whole year of last year. From the point of view of passenger vehicles alone, cumulative sales growth in the first four months was only 7.55%, while sales in April increased only 2.79% year-on-year, and output growth was only 1.19%.

If the trend in 2008 is of reference significance, it is speculated that this year's Chinese auto market will form a large-scale negative growth phase after May, and this number may even exceed double digits after June and July. .