·Inventory warning index super-warning line used car sales hit a record high

In January 2018, the automobile dealer inventory warning index was 67.2%, an increase of 19.5 percentage points from the previous month, above the warning line. According to the circulation association, the increase in the dealer inventory warning index was mainly due to the exit of the small-displacement purchase tax in 2018, and the demand for models in this range decreased.
It is worth mentioning that in 2017, the transaction volume of China's used car market exceeded 12.4 million for the first time, a record high. Xiao Zhengsan said that the explosive growth of used cars is inseparable from the “removal of used cars” policy issued by the state.
On February 1, the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the “Circulation Association”) released monthly data showing that the automobile dealer inventory warning index was 67.2% in January 2018, a sharp increase of 19.5 percentage points from the previous warning line. According to the circulation association, the demand for the automotive market in 2018 is not strong, and dealers are under great pressure.

Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the circulation association, said that the sharp increase in the dealer inventory warning index was mainly due to the exit of the small-displacement purchase tax in 2018, and the demand for models in this range was reduced. Secondly, snowfall in most parts of China recently affected car sales; Once again, the tide of returning to the Spring Festival has appeared in advance, and the phenomenon of buying a car to go home for a long time has decreased. Finally, some consumers have reduced disposable income and insufficient purchasing power.
From the inventory warning index, the market demand sub-index and the sales sub-index decreased sharply in January; the operating conditions sub-index also fell on a month-on-month basis; while the inventory index and the sub-index of employees increased. From this point of view, market demand is weak in January. According to the circulation association, unlike the hike phenomenon at the end of 2017, the market demand decreased in January this year, resulting in a sharp decline in average daily sales. As a result, the operating conditions also declined, and the final inventory index increased.

In addition, the circulation association also announced the regional dealer inventory warning index for January 2018. The national total index in January was 67.2%, of which the North District Index was 72.7%, the Western Region Index was 67.2%, the Southern Region Index was 50.9%, and the Eastern Region Index was 63.4%. According to the data, the regional inventory warning index for each region in January was above the warning line. According to the circulation association, the highest index in the northern region is mainly due to the serious economic downturn in the three provinces in recent years, and the outflow of personnel, so the demand for new cars is not strong; while the economy in the southern region is relatively developed, the local consumers have strong purchasing power, so there is no market adjustment. Was significantly affected.
It is worth mentioning that in January 2018, the circulation association added a new inventory warning brand type index. In January, the joint venture brand index and the self-owned brand index rose sharply, and the import brand index was basically the same as last month. The circulation association said that the exit of the preferential tax policy on purchases has a greater impact on joint venture brands and independent brands. In addition, the joint venture brand inventory warning index has been seriously divided, with the Korean and legal systems dragging their feet.

In addition, the circulation association also made a forecast for the annual sales of domestic cars in 2018. According to the circulation association, "Our judgment on the auto market in 2018 is slightly pessimistic, and it is a good situation to be able to maintain zero growth." Among them, insufficient purchasing power is the main reason. In addition, countries around the world will have a deep adjustment in the eighth year to the tenth year of the first year of automobile popularization, and China is currently in an adjustment period.
It is worth noting that in 2017, the volume of used car market in China exceeded 12.4 million for the first time, a record high. The data shows that in 2017, the cumulative sales of used cars in China was 1,24,900, a year-on-year increase of 19.33%, and the transaction volume reached 809.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%.

From 2011 to 2017, Xiao Zhengsan, the secretary-general of the used car trading volume circulation association, said that in 2017, both the volume of used cars and the growth rate reached a record high, while the second-hand car achieved explosive growth and the country’s release of the second-hand limit. The policy of “moving” is inseparable. In addition, China's car ownership reached 210 million, laying a firm foundation for second-hand cars; second-hand car certification and price transparency, reshaping consumer confidence; the purchase of vehicles in 2009 reached the replacement period, triggering the endogenous power of the used car market It is also an important factor in the substantial growth of used cars.
In December 2017, the trading volume of the used car market in the country was 1,23,900, and the transaction volume increased by 7.41% from the previous month, an increase of 13.85%. According to industry insiders, car dealers are worried that second-hand cars will increase their usage period in the next year, thus reducing the sales price of car sales. Thanks to this, the used car market performed well in December.
Looking back on 2017, the volume of used cars in multiple months reached more than 1 million units, and in December it reached a record high of 1,329,900 units. In addition, the growth rate of used car transactions is mostly above 15% for the whole year, and there are still more than 20% growth rate in five months.
In terms of models, the national second-hand car models in 2017 are still dominated by basic passenger cars, accounting for 59.43%, followed by passenger cars accounting for 10.74%, trucks accounting for 9.01%, SUVs accounting for 7%, and MPV ratios. 5.83%. Compared with 2016, passenger cars, SUVs, and MPs have increased compared with other cars. Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the circulation association, said that the proportion and changes of used car transactions are similar to those of new cars. The increase in the SUV base led to an increase in the transaction volume of used car-related models.
In terms of service life, the used car used in 2017 has the largest transaction volume in 3-6 years, accounting for 43.49%, followed by 24.7% in 3 years, 22% in 7-10 years, and 9.44% in 10 years. .
In 2017, the second-hand car trading price range of less than 30,000 yuan in the vehicle market accounted for the largest, accounting for 36.36%. It is worth noting that the average price of used cars in 2017 was 65,300 yuan, an increase of 0.72 million yuan compared with last year. Luo Lei said that, like the new car market, this year's used car market is characterized by consumption upgrades.
When talking about the sales of used cars in 2018, Luo Lei said that after entering 2018, used cars have many favorable factors. First of all, the Ministry of Commerce will further promote the comprehensive cancellation of the “restricted move” policy for used cars; secondly, the revision of the second-hand car circulation management measures will also raise the agenda; finally, the second-hand car tax policy and commodity attributes are also sparing no effort to promote. These factors will have a major impact on used car transactions, so the circulation association predicts that the volume of used car trading in 2018 may climb to 15 million, with a growth rate of 15-20%.

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