LED industry development status and future trend prospects

LEDs rose in China in 2000, and the rapid development was in 2009-2010, mainly driven by backlight + lighting. However, since 2014, the saturation of the backlight market has led to a year-on-year decline in prices, mainly relying on the rapid penetration of lighting to support the growth rate of the entire industry. Now you can see some changes in the entire industry, that is, the industry is recovering. Industry Recovery and Growth 2016 Industry Overview In 2016, LED China's lighting exports totaled US$16.4 billion. As the world's major OEM area, export data can reflect changes in demand. In 2016, there was no growth in 2015, and there was a downward trend (compared with 64% growth in 2014 and 16% growth in 2015), indicating that the growth of the industry is difficult to maintain by lighting, and it has entered a period of smooth development. The chip industry in 2016 was 13.9 billion yuan, up 9% year-on-year, and in 2015 it was down 7% year-on-year. The main reason for the reversal is the stability of prices + the rapid growth of some areas of lighting. From the supply side, mainland companies have 13% YOY in 2016 and -2% in Taiwan, indicating that the country's productivity has increased rapidly. The localization rate was 66% in 2014, 73% in 2015, and 76% in 2016. The national production rate is always growing. In 2017, mainstream manufacturers will continue to expand production capacity, and the chip country's production rate will further increase in the future. In the past years, the Taiwan factory had obvious technical advantages and was popular in the mainland. However, in recent years, the gap between domestic manufacturers and crystal power headed by Sanan has been shrinking, and even in some product areas has surpassed. On the other hand, the export rate in 2015 was 8%, and in 2016 it was 9.6%. The overseas market is also expanding. In terms of industry concentration, the top ten manufacturers in 2016 accounted for 77%, with a high level. The top three are Sanan (29%), Jingdian (13%) and Huacan (8%). The future is further concentration. Improve and strengthen the state of the strong. Packaging Industry The market in 2016 was 58.9 billion, up 6% year-on-year. In 2015, it grew 2% compared to 2014, mainly due to price and terminal demand factors. The difference between packaging and chip industry lies in the fact that there are international manufacturers. In 2016, the growth rate of mainland manufacturers was 8%, that of Taiwan enterprises was 1%, and that of international enterprises was 4%. In the future, the local market will continue to grow the fastest. The mainland manufacturers will mainly expand their production, and the technological gap will continue to shrink. Especially in the white light field, the advantages of international enterprises will be eliminated. The localization rate continued to increase, reaching 66% in 2015 and 67% in 2016. The localization rate is lower than that of the chip, mainly because the international factory has absolute right to speak in high-end fields such as car and mobile phone flash, and the technical threshold is very high. In 2016, the mainland manufacturers produced 29.5 billion output value and 8% growth rate. Industry concentration continued to increase, with 39% in the top ten cities in 2015 and 43% in 2016. Specific manufacturers: China's market share is 7% of Japan's Nichia, and second Woodlin's 6.9%. Other countries such as Philips still have a relatively high share. National brands such as Guoxing and Hongli can still rank in the top ten, ranking sixth and eighth respectively. Industry Future Outlook Future Development Forecast The industry has entered a reshuffle period from 2015 to 2020. The growth rate of 20%-30% in 2009 will be difficult to appear in the future. The package compound growth rate in 2015-2020 is about 6%, and it is developing steadily. The chip industry is welcoming the turning point. The chip is generally miserable after the second half of 2010, and finally ushered in a turnaround. This year, the supply side is very tight, and some areas (small spacing) are blue-green, regardless of the order of Sanan Huacan. In the next two years, the bargaining power of chip companies will increase, and packaging companies will decline. In addition, international factories such as Samsung and Philips may reduce their production capacity. The trend is to find a foundry in China. Look at the demand side: In the case of streetlights, the previous international market (India, Russia) required a lamp, and now imports lamp beads and power supplies. Because the local development of manufacturing has to start with simple lamps, and the chip is difficult to achieve self-sufficiency in a short time. It is predicted that there will be a phenomenon of entanglement in the future industry, such as the Sanan system, the Huacan system, and the Mulinsen system. Other manufacturers are more difficult to survive, that is, the logic of the industry's concentration increase + leading strong Hengqiang. The small spacing has shown rapid growth since 2014. The situation of major manufacturers: Liad's compound growth rate from 70% in 2014 to 2016 is 70% in 2016; 80% in Chau Ming; 70% in Ai Biesen. The spacing is reduced by half and the dosage is increased several times.

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