[Deep analysis] 2016 China's lithium battery market four major data

1. Lithium battery market scale

Affected by the continued rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for lithium-ion battery in China has soared in the past two years, and the power battery has gradually become the dominant force in the growth of the lithium battery industry. In 2016, the lithium-ion battery industry continued its rapid development. Industry website statistics show that in 2015, China's lithium battery cell output value reached 83.2 billion yuan, an increase of 38% compared with 2014. Due to the power terminal, the output value of China's lithium battery cells will reach 103.2 billion yuan in 2016. The growth is mainly driven by power. lithium battery. It is estimated that by 2018, the output value of China's lithium battery cells will reach 144.8 billion yuan.

China's lithium battery market size and growth in 2011-2018 (100 million yuan,%)

Lithium battery, power battery, new energy vehicle, electric car

2, lithium battery production

In the first half of 2016, the production of mobile phones and electric vehicles in the two major applications of lithium-ion batteries showed rapid growth in varying degrees. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's mobile phone production reached 966 million units in the first half of the year, up 23.3% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle production was 285,000 units, up 88.7% year-on-year. The rapid growth of the output of major downstream products has led to a surge in demand for lithium-ion batteries, which has reversed the trend of continued decline in the growth rate of lithium-ion battery production. According to industry website statistics, China's lithium battery production in the first half of 2016 was 28.15GWH, an increase of 30.5%. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the demand for lithium-ion power batteries will continue to grow rapidly. It is expected that the annual output of lithium batteries will reach 62.34GWH, and the proportion of China's power lithium batteries will be expected to exceed the 3C battery as the largest application. It is estimated that by 2018, the market size of China's lithium-ion battery will reach 102.68GWH, and the compound growth will be 25% in the next three years.

China's lithium battery production and growth rate in 2011-2018 (GWH,%)

Lithium battery, power battery, new energy vehicle, electric car

3, lithium battery three application terminals

From the perspective of the three major consumer terminals of lithium batteries, the power lithium battery is the fastest growing. In 2015, China's power lithium battery production was 16.9GWH, a year-on-year increase of more than three times, and the growth rate far exceeded the other two terminals. In the first half of 2016, China's power lithium battery production is about 12.64GWH. It is expected that the low-power battery output in China will reach 29.39GWH in 2016, exceeding the 3C battery output and becoming the largest consumer. The power battery will be the Chinese lithium battery for the next 3 years. The largest drive engine, the power battery is gradually transitioning from the lead-in period to the high-speed growth period.

In 2015, 3C consumer electronics products required a total of 25.37Gwh lithium battery, an increase of 17.64%, accounting for 54.52%, but the growth rate has gradually slowed down, the growth rate in the next three years will remain at around 5%. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, energy storage was included in the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, and the development potential is huge. The lithium battery application is still in the market introduction stage due to technical and policy reasons, and it is relatively lagging behind the power battery. ,. In 2015, China's energy storage lithium battery production was about 3GWH, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%. As the technology matures in the future, the energy storage market will also become the other pole driving lithium battery consumption. It is estimated that the output of China's energy storage lithium battery in 2016 is 3.79GWH.

2011-1818 China's lithium battery three major application terminal demand and forecast (GWH)

Lithium battery, power battery, new energy vehicle, electric car

4, three types of lithium batteries

Affected by the power battery, although the soft pack battery continued to sit firmly in the position of production and growth rate in 2015, it was challenged by the square battery core, combined with the mature 3C soft pack battery market and some Parts of the power battery still use soft pack. The battery core considers that the soft pack will still be the most important type of battery in the past two years, and with the power battery factory in the past two years, especially the leading battery manufacturers in Guoxuan and BYD have expanded the square power battery production line to In 2018, square batteries will replace soft-pack batteries as the most widely used battery types in the market. Cylindrical batteries are the weakest of the three battery cells. However, the power battery companies represented by Waterma are expanding rapidly, and their market position is not to be underestimated.

According to the specific data, China's soft-package battery production in 2015 was 20.93GWH, up 47.28% year-on-year; cylindrical battery output was 11.5GWH, up 44.42% year-on-year; square battery output was 14.37GWH, up 56.61% year-on-year. Faster than the other two shapes of batteries. It is estimated that the output of China's square cell will reach 20.32GWH in 2016, and the growth rate will reach 40%, which is still higher than that of soft pack and cylindrical battery.

2011-2018 China's lithium battery three application types of production (GWH)

Lithium battery, power battery, new energy vehicle, electric car

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